As the kharif season is setting in, India is scrambling to source fertilisers from the international market. It is set to sign long-term contracts - especially with Morocco and Latin American countries - to ensure steady flow of supplies. "We have to source fertilisers wherever it is available because crops have to be secured.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and chief ministers of states may soon have an in-person interaction on a common platform for the first time since 2019. The seventh meeting of the Governing Council of NITI Aayog is likely to be held in late June or early July, Business Standard has learnt from sources in the Centre and a state. While the date and other details are yet to be finalised, it is learnt that there will be a conclave of chief secretaries of states and Union Territories in Dharamshala, Himachal Pradesh, on June 14 and 15, which will decide the agenda of the Council meeting to be held at a later date.
Some states are taking a legal view on the state GST rate and the compensation rules ahead of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) Council meeting, which is likely to be held in mid-June, said people in the know. While the agenda is still being finalised, several states are likely to take up the matter related to GST compensation and may pitch for its continuation beyond the June 30 deadline. States would like to know how they would divide the compensation collected after June 2022 for payment of principal and interest of compensation shortfall borrowing and arrears to states, sources said.
The Netherlands has emerged as India's fifth-largest export destination in 2021-22 (FY22), jumping from its 10th position a year ago. Exports to the fifth-largest economy in the European Union (EU) bolted 94 per cent to $12.5 billion in the financial year ended March 31. In FY22, the Netherlands surpassed Hong Kong, Singapore, the UK, Germany, and Nepal to become India's largest export destination in the EU. Germany, which was earlier India's top European export destination (eighth position), has now dropped two ranks to 10th place.
India's inflation trajectory in the coming months will be influenced more by the geo-political situation due to the war in Europe and its impact on supply chains and commodity prices. However, the country is better placed than most to "weather the storm" and achieve growth of close to 8 per cent in the current fiscal year, the finance ministry said in its latest monthly economic report on Thursday. "Through the channel of imports, elevated global crude and edible oil prices now have a significant impact on India's inflation outlook. "Government measures to keep the prices of these commodities in check, along with the recent hike in policy rates by the RBI, are expected to temper inflationary pressures in the economy," the monthly economic report for April, drafted by the finance ministry's economic division, said.
'Top lines will grow, volume growth will be there, but margins might also be impacted.'
Without naming India, S&P said it expects that in regions where inflation already exceeds targets, or which are vulnerable to capital flight, central banks will be forced to raise interest rates.
The US on Thursday raised concerns over India's Personal Data Protection (PDP) Bill and draft non-personal data governance framework, claiming these could potentially threaten innovation and economic growth. In its latest 'Special 301' Report, the US Trade Representative (USTR) kept India on the priority watch list, maintaining the country remains one of the world's most challenging major economies with respect to protection and enforcement of intellectual property (IP). In December 2021, a joint parliamentary committee released a report recommending changes to the PDP Bill, 2019, that could undermine important IP protections in India.
The Parliamentary Standing Committee on Commerce has observed that a massive shortfall in the budgetary allocation of over Rs 1,900 crore by the finance ministry to the industry department may have an adverse impact on the implementation of infrastructure (infra) projects in 2022-23 (FY23). While the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) had sought Rs 10,267 crore from the finance ministry for FY23, it received Rs 8,348-crore allocation. For the National Industrial Corridor Development & Implementation Trust (NICDIT), the finance ministry has allocated Rs 1,500 crore instead of Rs 2,400 crore demanded for the project.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its latest World Economic Outlook report, has slashed its forecast for India's FY23 gross domestic product growth to 8.2 per cent from 9 per cent, saying that higher commodity prices will weigh on private consumption and investment. This was one of the steepest cuts for emerging economies compared to the IMF's January WEO forecasts. Saying that global economic prospects have worsened significantly due to commodity price volatility and disruption of supply chains caused by the war in Europe, IMF cut its global growth outlook for calendar year 2022 to 3.6 per cent from 4.4 per cent, and said both Russia and Ukraine could experience large GDP contractions.
Nepal's decision to ban the import of non-essential items amid depleting forex reserves may hit Indian exports. The country's central bank - Nepal Rastra Bank - last week instructed commercial banks not to open letters of credit (LCs) for importing non-essential items. This is to prevent further decline of the country's foreign exchange reserves. However, it has not issued any formal communication yet.
Only 80.6 per cent of the Rs 6-trillion allocation has been spent by February, data from the Controller General of Accounts shows.
In a major relief to Indian information technology (IT) companies operating in Australia, Canberra has agreed to amend its domestic laws to stop taxing offshore income of such Indian companies, as part of the free trade deal inked. This may lead to savings up to $200 million each year for over 100 Indian IT companies operating in Australia. "The Government of Australia has agreed to amend the domestic taxation law to stop the taxation of offshore income of Indian firms providing technical services to Australia. "This will resolve the issue that the Indian government has raised about the double taxation avoidance agreement (DTAA) between the two governments for the avoidance of double taxation and the prevention of fiscal evasion with respect to taxes on income," said a commerce ministry official.
Taking advantage of a Russian offer to sell its crude oil cheap and bear the cost of insurance and transportation, India may import as much as 2 million tonnes (mt), or roughly 15 million barrels of crude, from the sanctioned nation in 2022, Business Standard has learnt. This comes after reports that Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) bought 3 million barrels of Russian Urals from trader Vitol for May delivery. This will be on cost, insurance and freight (CIF) model, where the seller incurs the costs and pays the freight, including insurance charges.
The finance ministry said on Tuesday that high energy and commodity prices due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine may provide an upside risk to inflation and continued vigil is required. "Going forward, elevated energy and commodity prices may act as an upside risk to the inflation outlook in the near-medium term. "Given the inherently unsustainable nature of high prices, international commodity prices are expected to level off early with an increase in supplies outside the crisis zone," the department of economic affairs said in its latest monthly economic report for February.
India's exports are unlikely to get an immediate boost from a depreciating rupee, which touched an all-time low on Monday, driven by rising commodity prices. The rupee fell to 76.97 against the dollar earlier in the day, settling 1.05 per cent weaker than the previous close. Oil prices soared to their highest since 2008 on Monday at $139 per barrel, after the US and European allies explored a Russian oil import ban, while delays in the potential return of Iranian crude oil to global markets increased supply fears.
The apparel and engineering sectors have already witnessed the trend in the past one week. If this continues, it can have an impact on the overall export demand in the coming months, considering that Europe is the largest national export market for India.
The government may soon give the green light to bilateral trade between Russia and India in their national currencies to avoid any trade disruptions, multiple people aware of the matter said. While the Department of Commerce has recommended the proposal, an announcement is likely to be made by the finance ministry after further deliberations between the Department of Economic Affairs and Department of Financial Services. "The finance ministry will take a call on how to peg the two currencies," a senior government official told Business Standard. In the past, the two nations have had rupee-rouble trade, and when such an arrangement is implemented again, it will bypass the sanctions imposed on Russia by the West.
The Centre's ambitious Rs 6-trillion National Monetisation Pipeline (NMP) could fall short of yearly targets for the current fiscal year (FY22) and the next one as well (FY23), partly due to the long gestation period in monetising big-ticket railway infrastructure, Business Standard has learnt from sources in the finance and rail ministries. Officials say the major chunk of railway monetisation will happen from FY24 onwards because leasing some of the infrastructure, like stadiums and dedicated freight corridor, will not happen anytime soon. Rail infra is expected to be the second-biggest contributor to the NMP, with about Rs 1.52 trillion worth of assets to be monetised.
A proposal in the Union Budget 2022-23 to raise excise duty on dirtier, unblended retail petrol and diesel has met with some resistance from the petroleum ministry. However, finance ministry officials say no such communication arguing against the levy of extra duty on diesel has been received from the oil ministry. Until there are discussions between the two departments, the proposal will not be tweaked in the Finance Bill. The Rs 2 per litre additional excise duty proposed on unblended fuels in the Finance Bill will result in a uniform hike of diesel prices across the country from October 1.
